Predictions From A Loudmouth Blogger :-)
Well, here it goes! Normally I leave my predictions until the night before election day, but I said I’d put em up Friday, here they are:
Liberal: 32
PC :22
NDP: 1
Looking high for the Libs you say?? Yeah………they are. But I think there is a bit of a surge taking place, and I think the Libs will be in the 30+ range. I should mention, I came to this not because I think Shawn has magically transformed himself, but I think minus any Major election issue this time around, it is going to come down to a race between local candidates, and not really a leadership contest. That said, I think the Liberals simply have a better slate of candidates than the PC’s this time around.
I'm going to add my thoughts on the local ridings in the Saint John area. It’s the area I'm most familiar with and the other areas have been picked apart, and analyzed to death.
Fundy - River Valley: This is a riding where many feel ignored by the Lord Conservatives. I think there will be a backlash, although Borden DeLong for the PC’s is a strong candidate, I'm giving the edge to Jack Keir of the Liberals.
Saint John - Fundy I actually have a strong Anti-Jamieson bias, and I'll be damned if I can figure out how this guy keeps getting elected. That said, I have a feeling he will once again pull a rabbit out of his hat, and convince enough people he deserves the job. This riding is not a gimme this time around, and a drive around will tell you there are a ton of James Huttges supporters in this area. This one could be very close. Call goes to Jamieson.
Saint John East Roly MacIntyre should grab this one fairly handily for the Liberals. MacIntyre should be a shoe-in for cabinet if the Liberals form a government after Monday night, and he retains his seat like I expect.
Saint John Lancaster An interesting choice of candidate in this one from the PC’s. Peter Hyslop was the public intervener in the NB Power rate hike hearings in front of the PUB. He has come out and publicly stated he thinks Lord should apologize for the Orimulsion fiasco. With friends like this........
I don’t think he can take Abel Leblanc quite frankly. I think Abel has a ton of support, and should take this riding without much trouble.
Saint John Harbour This one should be a cake walk for Liberal incumbent Dr. Ed Doherty. He’s very, very popular in this riding. PC candidate Idee Inyangudor was Trevor Holder’s assistant. Probably the only person they could find after the beating the PC’s took in the recent by-election. Inyangudor is the sacrificial lamb in this case. This one won’t even be close.
Saint John Portland One of the most interesting races in Southern New Brunswick IMO. Holder came close to losing this one last time around by 169 votes to Colleen Knudson. What saved him was the vote splitting on the Left between the Liberals and the NDP. NDP candidate Clare Mudge is an unknown this time around, and popular former federal NDP Candidate Terry Albright is working with Knudeson. Holder is in trouble I think. I'm calling Knudson by a comfortable margin.
Rothesay This is a tough one. I’ve been hearing good things about the Liberal Candidate Paul Barry. Even so, Margaret-Ann Blaney may be tough to beat. Constant reader will know I'm not a fan of Blaney, however, she still commands a lot of support in this area. I do think Barry could take this, if there is a real desire in the electorate for a change, but I'm giving the edge here to Blaney, in what I'm projecting will be a squeaker.
Quispamsis I’ll be watching this one very closely. Brenda Fowlie should not be re-elected if there is any justice at all. She does not deserve to be an MLA, let alone a cabinet minister with one of the top portfolios. She squeaked this one out last time by 19 votes. I think it will be a much larger margin this time around…….but not in Fowlie’s favor. The Liberal’s have worked this riding very, very hard, and I'm calling Mary Schryer in Quispamsis.
Hampton – Kings Bev Harrison has had this one in the bag for the last couple of elections. He’s been campaigning harder this time around than he ever did in the past. Redistribution may play a role in this one. Harrison is gaining some of Fowlie’s old riding, and has lost some strong Conservative support up in the Norton area. Liberal Linda Watson has worked hard here, but I'm a bit perplexed to be honest. I would have expected a higher profile candidate this time around in this riding. Given the past history of this area, I have to give the edge to Harrison, unless, again, a “change” catches on and there is a move to dump the conservative. This one is in my “Ones to watch” category. Call goes to Harrison.
Finally, I just want to comment on the Fredericton - Lincoln race. Up above in my predictions I gave the NDP 1 seat. This is it. I'm not totally convinced she can win this one. Greg Byrne will be tough to beat. I think this one could very possibly wind up PC due to vote splitting. That said, I think the Province would actually be better served by having Brewer in the Leg and out of the gallery. She's a smart lady, and while I may not agree with all her ideas, i'm convinced that a Legislature made up of only Liberals and Conservative MLA's is in nobody's best intrest, except perhaps the Liberals and Conservative MLA's.
Oh and while i'm at it.......Tanker malley will win again. Should he??? Absolutly not........but go spend some time on the Chi' and you'll know why Malley will be re-elected and be rewarded with his pension.
That's it..........The above senario is one of the reasons I put the Libs out front. This one is going to be fought in the trenches at the local level. Hope you join Spinks and I election night....I think this one will be a dog fight.
Liberal: 32
PC :22
NDP: 1
Looking high for the Libs you say?? Yeah………they are. But I think there is a bit of a surge taking place, and I think the Libs will be in the 30+ range. I should mention, I came to this not because I think Shawn has magically transformed himself, but I think minus any Major election issue this time around, it is going to come down to a race between local candidates, and not really a leadership contest. That said, I think the Liberals simply have a better slate of candidates than the PC’s this time around.
I'm going to add my thoughts on the local ridings in the Saint John area. It’s the area I'm most familiar with and the other areas have been picked apart, and analyzed to death.
Fundy - River Valley: This is a riding where many feel ignored by the Lord Conservatives. I think there will be a backlash, although Borden DeLong for the PC’s is a strong candidate, I'm giving the edge to Jack Keir of the Liberals.
Saint John - Fundy I actually have a strong Anti-Jamieson bias, and I'll be damned if I can figure out how this guy keeps getting elected. That said, I have a feeling he will once again pull a rabbit out of his hat, and convince enough people he deserves the job. This riding is not a gimme this time around, and a drive around will tell you there are a ton of James Huttges supporters in this area. This one could be very close. Call goes to Jamieson.
Saint John East Roly MacIntyre should grab this one fairly handily for the Liberals. MacIntyre should be a shoe-in for cabinet if the Liberals form a government after Monday night, and he retains his seat like I expect.
Saint John Lancaster An interesting choice of candidate in this one from the PC’s. Peter Hyslop was the public intervener in the NB Power rate hike hearings in front of the PUB. He has come out and publicly stated he thinks Lord should apologize for the Orimulsion fiasco. With friends like this........
I don’t think he can take Abel Leblanc quite frankly. I think Abel has a ton of support, and should take this riding without much trouble.
Saint John Harbour This one should be a cake walk for Liberal incumbent Dr. Ed Doherty. He’s very, very popular in this riding. PC candidate Idee Inyangudor was Trevor Holder’s assistant. Probably the only person they could find after the beating the PC’s took in the recent by-election. Inyangudor is the sacrificial lamb in this case. This one won’t even be close.
Saint John Portland One of the most interesting races in Southern New Brunswick IMO. Holder came close to losing this one last time around by 169 votes to Colleen Knudson. What saved him was the vote splitting on the Left between the Liberals and the NDP. NDP candidate Clare Mudge is an unknown this time around, and popular former federal NDP Candidate Terry Albright is working with Knudeson. Holder is in trouble I think. I'm calling Knudson by a comfortable margin.
Rothesay This is a tough one. I’ve been hearing good things about the Liberal Candidate Paul Barry. Even so, Margaret-Ann Blaney may be tough to beat. Constant reader will know I'm not a fan of Blaney, however, she still commands a lot of support in this area. I do think Barry could take this, if there is a real desire in the electorate for a change, but I'm giving the edge here to Blaney, in what I'm projecting will be a squeaker.
Quispamsis I’ll be watching this one very closely. Brenda Fowlie should not be re-elected if there is any justice at all. She does not deserve to be an MLA, let alone a cabinet minister with one of the top portfolios. She squeaked this one out last time by 19 votes. I think it will be a much larger margin this time around…….but not in Fowlie’s favor. The Liberal’s have worked this riding very, very hard, and I'm calling Mary Schryer in Quispamsis.
Hampton – Kings Bev Harrison has had this one in the bag for the last couple of elections. He’s been campaigning harder this time around than he ever did in the past. Redistribution may play a role in this one. Harrison is gaining some of Fowlie’s old riding, and has lost some strong Conservative support up in the Norton area. Liberal Linda Watson has worked hard here, but I'm a bit perplexed to be honest. I would have expected a higher profile candidate this time around in this riding. Given the past history of this area, I have to give the edge to Harrison, unless, again, a “change” catches on and there is a move to dump the conservative. This one is in my “Ones to watch” category. Call goes to Harrison.
Finally, I just want to comment on the Fredericton - Lincoln race. Up above in my predictions I gave the NDP 1 seat. This is it. I'm not totally convinced she can win this one. Greg Byrne will be tough to beat. I think this one could very possibly wind up PC due to vote splitting. That said, I think the Province would actually be better served by having Brewer in the Leg and out of the gallery. She's a smart lady, and while I may not agree with all her ideas, i'm convinced that a Legislature made up of only Liberals and Conservative MLA's is in nobody's best intrest, except perhaps the Liberals and Conservative MLA's.
Oh and while i'm at it.......Tanker malley will win again. Should he??? Absolutly not........but go spend some time on the Chi' and you'll know why Malley will be re-elected and be rewarded with his pension.
That's it..........The above senario is one of the reasons I put the Libs out front. This one is going to be fought in the trenches at the local level. Hope you join Spinks and I election night....I think this one will be a dog fight.
